The impact of digital trade rules on China’s export growth
数字贸易规则对中国出口的影响研究

摘要

在全球数字经济重构经贸格局及区域贸易协定（RTA）规则向边境后延伸的背景下，本文基于2012-2023年中国HS-6位码产品层面出口数据，从规则广度与深度双维度，系统考察了RTA数字贸易规则对中国出口的影响。研究发现：第一，RTA数字贸易规则的广度提升与深度强化均能显著促进中国出口增长，该结论经过稳健性检验与内生性处理后依然成立。第二，机制检验表明，提升伙伴国数字基础设施水平与优化数字贸易监管环境是两条核心传导路径。第三，异质性分析显示，规则的出口促进效应在最终品和发展中国家样本中更为突出，而对中间品及发达国家的影响相对有限。据此，本文提出了强化规则深度建设、优化数字基础设施水平、加强数字监管协同及实施差异化策略等政策启示。

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the global digital economy reshaping the international economic and trade landscape and Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) increasingly extending to behind-the-border regulatory issues, this paper empirically examines the impact of RTA digital trade rules on China's export growth from the dual dimensions of rule breadth and depth, using China's HS 6-digit product-level export data from 2012 to 2023. The study yields three key findings: First, both the expansion of the breadth and the enhancement of the depth of RTA digital trade rules significantly boost China's export growth, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks and endogeneity corrections. Second, mechanism analysis confirms that improving partner countries’ digital infrastructure and optimizing their digital trade regulatory environment are two core transmission channels. Third, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the export-promoting effect of the rules is significantly more pronounced for final goods and exports to developing countries, while its impact on intermediate goods and exports to developed countries is relatively limited. Based on these findings, this paper puts forward targeted policy implications, including strengthening the in-depth construction of digital trade rules, optimizing digital infrastructure, enhancing cross-border digital regulatory coordination, and implementing differentiated trade strategies.