The application of project risk management in complex projects
项目风险管理在复杂项目中的应用

摘要

随着全球化与信息技术的快速发展，现代工程项目日益呈现出规模庞大、技术复杂、利益相关方众多等特点，使得项目风险管理（Project Risk Management, PRM）在复杂项目中的重要性愈发凸显。本文基于国内外相关文献，系统梳理了项目风险管理的理论框架、关键流程及方法，并探讨其在复杂项目环境下的适应性优化策略。首先，从风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控四个核心环节出发，结合复杂项目的不确定性、动态性和系统性特征，分析传统风险管理方法的局限性。其次，引入复杂系统理论、模糊数学、贝叶斯网络等跨学科方法，提出适用于复杂项目的风险管理模型，以提高风险预测与应对的精准性。

Abstract

With the rapid development of globalization and information technology, modern engineering projects are increasingly characterized by large scale, complex technology, and many stakeholders, making the importance of project risk management (PRM) in complex projects becoming more and more prominent. Based on relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper systematically sorts out the theoretical framework, key processes and methods of project risk management, and discusses its adaptive optimization strategies in complex project environments. Firstly, starting from the four core links of risk identification, risk assessment, risk response and risk monitoring, combined with the uncertainty, dynamics and systematic characteristics of complex projects, the limitations of traditional risk management methods are analyzed. Secondly, interdisciplinary methods such as complex system theory, fuzzy mathematics, and Bayesian network are introduced to propose a risk management model suitable for complex projects to improve the accuracy of risk prediction and response.